This post first appeared on Forbes.com. Read it here.

It is difficult to pick up a business publication today without reading about venture capitalists (VCs, defined as professionally-managed VC limited partnerships that invest in early-stage ventures), about their skills in finding great investment opportunities, and about the ventures they fund. Since we all like to talk about our successes, the stories are about how entrepreneurs secured VC and quickly built a unicorn. This can lead us to think that this is the only model for success, that all entrepreneurs should seek VC, and cede control of their venture. But is this true?

Will you get venture capital?

Due to the high risk in emerging ventures, VCs are very picky. In a free, capitalist society such as this there are always more dreamers than successes. So it might not surprise you to know that VCs finance very few ventures from those that seek VC, and few seek VC. They reject most ventures because they are not in preferred industries, have not displayed the potential or the proof of potential, have not been referred by the right person, or any one of many reasons. The reality is that most ventures do not qualify for venture capital and never will. According to the Small Business Administration, about 600,000-700,000 new businesses are started in the U.S. each year, and the number of startups funded by VCs is about 1,500 (PwcMoneyTree.com). This means that fewer than 0.25 percent of new businesses get VC.

Are your odds better for existing ventures? It does not seem to change much. More entrepreneurs may get VC, but the proportion seems to be about the same. The number of VC deals was about 5,427 in 2017. But these include multiple investments into the same venture, and most of these ventures are 3-7 years old. This means that about 0.1 percent of U.S. ventures get VC at any stage, and 99.9 percent of all ventures do not get VC.

Will you succeed with VC?

Firstly, remember that securing VC does not mean that you have built a home run or have become wealthy. All it means is that you may have just ceded control of your business to investors whose interests may not coincide with yours. VCs want high returns, which may come at your expense.

Secondly, even with VC, you may not make a fortune, but you may have lost control of your one great idea (not many get two, and most of us do not even get one). Most entrepreneurs I met in the course of my financing career had faith that their business would succeed, and that they would make a fortune. Otherwise why become an entrepreneur and suffer the agonies of building a new venture? For many, it is to build a home run.

Home runs are the holy-grail for entrepreneurs and for VCs – the stuff that dreams are made of. If you can develop one of these, not only are you likely to be fabulously wealthy, but journalists will endlessly write your story and everyone will seek your opinion even on topics you are not familiar with in hopes of getting an investment in their venture or a grant from your foundation. These are the deals that can get your name in lights. You will be feted and hailed as a genius, until of course, your stock tanks. Home runs are ventures like eBay, where a VC fund invested about $7 million and harvested about $2.4 billion in 18 months. Each fund partner is said to have earned millions from this deal. When this happened, I had just joined academia, and nearly all of my MBA students wanted to be VCs, which is always a leading indicator of impending doom. It was.

The reality is that, even with all their strict criteria for selecting ventures, VCs succeed very rarely, Howard Anderson, a former VC, notes that the “common wisdom” in the VC industry is that of every 100 ventures financed, 20 are total write offs, 20 are losers, 40 are in the middle and 20 are winners. Noted author Gary Hamel estimates that out of 10 venture investments, “five will be total write offs, three will be modest successes, one will double the initial investment (19% internal rate of return per year (IRR) if exited in four years and 15% if in five years), and one will return 50 to 100 times the investment” (at 50 times, IRR is 166% if the exit is in four years and 119% if in five).

Mark Andreessen, co-founder of Netscape and a top-ranked VC, notes that only about 15 ventures are worth investing in each year. If your venture does not become a home run with VC, your odds of making a huge fortune diminish considerably. If the venture fails, you may get a salary assuming the new leadership team keeps you. If your venture is a success, but not a home run, the VCs are likely to get their money out first (since they invest in preferred stock) along with a return, and you may get to share in the remainder, if there is any, with the new CEO recruited by the VCs and the management team. You may also lose your one opportunity to build a venture yourself.

Can you do better by avoiding VC, or by delaying it even if you can get it?

Yes. I will cover this in a future blog.

MY TAKE: Add the 99.9 percent of entrepreneurs who will not get VC to the 0.08 percent who will fail with VC and the reality is that 99.98 percent should avoid VC. Many entrepreneurs think that it would be better to own 10 percent of an eBay rather than 100 percent of a failed competitor. If you have a guarantee that you will become a home run, VC may be good. Otherwise, you are gambling with your one great opportunity – not many get two. That’s why Steve Jobs is a genius. There are very few home runs. Before you seek VC, ask yourself whether you can succeed without VC, or by delaying VC. That’s what most of the billion-dollar entrepreneurs did.